An observation on the importance of context when discussing things that are measured.
This past Saturday there was a forecasted high temperature of 81°F in the city of Richmond, Virginia. This followed a high temperature of 77° the day before and was set to be 79° on Sunday. A clear pattern of consistently beautiful weather. According to one number.
Yet we make key decisions based on this one number. Decisions like "Do I pack extra pants in my suitcase?" To which I answered no. I run hot after all. Excited to rock some shorts after a frigid winter in the northeast.
But I (we) committed a key data evaluation sin. I ignored the broader context.
These high temperatures were not being reached until nearly 5 PM and our soccer games were bright and early at 8 AM.
So sure enough we arrive at the field the first day to a balmy 46° morning. Plenty in shorts, most shivering, none fully prepared.
Putting too much faith in a single data point as a target opens you up to misinterpreting that signal and making an uninformed decision. Sure, the forecast ended up being downright wrong, and the high temperature only ever reached 72°, and the low temperatures probably hinted at this kind of variance.
So what was the impact? For one, I had to go to the nearby Burlington department store to buy an extra pair of pants. And socks. And sunglasses. And a hat. And an extra shirt, because it was a great deal and I liked it. And also shoes. It was quite the haul. Incredible value. I love the pants. I'm wearing the shoes right now.
Beyond that, there was some shivering and some persistent discussion about how we were all let down by the weatherman. While there's plenty of blame to go around, the connection with making decisions based on low context, one dimensional information is clearly inferior to seeing a two or three dimensional view of the same situation.
Where in your life are you making decisions on one dimension of information and ignoring the other contexts around it?
Those are your blind spots, and ultimately it's our own fault if we don't see the bigger picture.